I don't understand how you make a long case for how Republicans would want a shutdown, want it to be long, want to consolidate power,and then advocate for a shutdown.
What is the path to success for Dems if they block the CR? Trump is still president, a disgusting beholden Republican party still controls both chambers. They won't agree to the key things you mentioned,they'll use their favorable information environment to blame Dems, and it just accelerates in to disaster with Dems to blame instead of the guys wrecking things. The bad stuff they do is unpopular and they take heat for it,why bail them out?
Just to make things easy to discuss, let's distinguish between procedural power, which is the ability to pass legislation or issue an executive order, and rhetorical power, which is the ability to persuade people of something.
Pres. Trump and his allies in Congress want full control over the political system centralized in the White House. Both a full year CR and a shutdown are avenues to achieve that goal. A full year CR would give Trump procedural and rhetorical power. A shutdown *may* give Trump rhetorical power, but the fight over procedural power would still be contested.
Let's examine this from the view of Democrats and those who oppose Trump.
Trump's opponents only have one avenue to attain their goal of fighting of centralized power in the White House. If Congress passes the full year CR, significant legislative authority will essentially be delegated to the White House and they will not have any procedural power for a long time, if ever. (I don't know how you evaluate rhetorical on this basis, but it likely would be a win for Trumpism.)
If Trump's opponents withhold their support for Trump's CR and thus Republicans do not have enough votes to pass the funding bill, this draws attention to the fight with Trump over his efforts to centralize power. They retain procedural leverage (i.e., their votes) regarding what's required to restore funding to the government.
Who gets rhetorical power in this situation? generally speaking, the party in power gets blamed for a government shutdown. Republicans will work hard to blame Dems. But will voters care in 20 months? Maybe, maybe not. BUT -- Trump's opponents will retain some element of procedural power so long as their votes are necessary to reopen the government -- and this gives them leverage to win the procedural and rhetorical fight.
thanks for the response. I guess my disagreement lies in thinking Dems would not win the rhetorical argument in a shutdown, and that all the bad things R's can do to consolidate power in a shutdown that you described just happen, with a neatly packaged argument for why Dems are actually to blame. By withholding votes, dems give R's the choice of either continuing shutdown or nuking filibuster; they have option value and can do either or both as they see beneficial. Trump gets cameras in his face every day to blame dems, and the dem argument is somewhat complicated. While it plays well to the base and isn't wrong, its hard to sell to median voters who are tuning in because its complicated. And since the reality will be that Dems are refusing to vote for a funding bill, the much simpler argument will resonate because that's how things are in this country.
As far I've seen this CR doesn't specifically give the White House new powers, it just doesn't take away existing ones that they've seized, that it's TBD if courts will try to stop, and TBD if courts can enforce. It changes some funding, ends some earmarks, is bad enough to get through the freedom caucus but not so bad that there's something specific in it that it must be opposed, other than not constraining other stuff already happening. This seems like a lose-lose for Dems, and that the least bad option is to make a big scene for the base, grudgingly pass it, and save your rhetorical ammo and credibility for the big fights ahead. I think the only thing that can constrain this administration is the unpopularity of their positions; they have both chambers, the courts, the military, and loyalists at every agency. But public opinion has not cratered yet, and Dems putting the spotlight on themselves while the admin is making things fall apart runs the risk of Dems ending up blamed by median voters for things falling apart.
You have reasonable concerns and I can understand why you see it that way. For me, only one pathway results in procedural power for democrats and that’s the power that I’m prioritizing to buy time for a pro-democracy movement to be able to counter what’s happening on a timeframe that is sooner than later, while the forces of Trumpism have not fully consisted power.
Will democrats stick to their guns? Will they insist on the right things in a future appropriations bill? There’s very good reason to be skeptical including Sen. Schumer’s attempt to have it both ways. But I think it’s the only viable option left.
If your prognostications become reality, this truly is a frightening moment for our country. Dems must recognize that business as usual in the government no longer exists and strategic as well tactical moves are required. The big tent must close ranks to ensure a unified front. Obstruction may work because Repubs could need Dem votes to pass their budget bill. The possibility, however, of Dems being tagged with responsibility for shutting down the government is a very real potential outcome. This would be tragic because as you say it plays into Repub hands.
Is this truly what we have become? I fear we are sleepwalking into the loss of our republic and democracy.
The big question in my mind is whether pro-democracy forces in Congress hold on long enough for the many people who otherwise have not been involved in politics to become involved, and for those involved to lead a pro-democracy movement.
The blame game matters to a significant extent, but the biggest factor will be people who are personally affected by Trump’s decisions.
I don't understand how you make a long case for how Republicans would want a shutdown, want it to be long, want to consolidate power,and then advocate for a shutdown.
What is the path to success for Dems if they block the CR? Trump is still president, a disgusting beholden Republican party still controls both chambers. They won't agree to the key things you mentioned,they'll use their favorable information environment to blame Dems, and it just accelerates in to disaster with Dems to blame instead of the guys wrecking things. The bad stuff they do is unpopular and they take heat for it,why bail them out?
Just to make things easy to discuss, let's distinguish between procedural power, which is the ability to pass legislation or issue an executive order, and rhetorical power, which is the ability to persuade people of something.
Pres. Trump and his allies in Congress want full control over the political system centralized in the White House. Both a full year CR and a shutdown are avenues to achieve that goal. A full year CR would give Trump procedural and rhetorical power. A shutdown *may* give Trump rhetorical power, but the fight over procedural power would still be contested.
Let's examine this from the view of Democrats and those who oppose Trump.
Trump's opponents only have one avenue to attain their goal of fighting of centralized power in the White House. If Congress passes the full year CR, significant legislative authority will essentially be delegated to the White House and they will not have any procedural power for a long time, if ever. (I don't know how you evaluate rhetorical on this basis, but it likely would be a win for Trumpism.)
If Trump's opponents withhold their support for Trump's CR and thus Republicans do not have enough votes to pass the funding bill, this draws attention to the fight with Trump over his efforts to centralize power. They retain procedural leverage (i.e., their votes) regarding what's required to restore funding to the government.
Who gets rhetorical power in this situation? generally speaking, the party in power gets blamed for a government shutdown. Republicans will work hard to blame Dems. But will voters care in 20 months? Maybe, maybe not. BUT -- Trump's opponents will retain some element of procedural power so long as their votes are necessary to reopen the government -- and this gives them leverage to win the procedural and rhetorical fight.
thanks for the response. I guess my disagreement lies in thinking Dems would not win the rhetorical argument in a shutdown, and that all the bad things R's can do to consolidate power in a shutdown that you described just happen, with a neatly packaged argument for why Dems are actually to blame. By withholding votes, dems give R's the choice of either continuing shutdown or nuking filibuster; they have option value and can do either or both as they see beneficial. Trump gets cameras in his face every day to blame dems, and the dem argument is somewhat complicated. While it plays well to the base and isn't wrong, its hard to sell to median voters who are tuning in because its complicated. And since the reality will be that Dems are refusing to vote for a funding bill, the much simpler argument will resonate because that's how things are in this country.
As far I've seen this CR doesn't specifically give the White House new powers, it just doesn't take away existing ones that they've seized, that it's TBD if courts will try to stop, and TBD if courts can enforce. It changes some funding, ends some earmarks, is bad enough to get through the freedom caucus but not so bad that there's something specific in it that it must be opposed, other than not constraining other stuff already happening. This seems like a lose-lose for Dems, and that the least bad option is to make a big scene for the base, grudgingly pass it, and save your rhetorical ammo and credibility for the big fights ahead. I think the only thing that can constrain this administration is the unpopularity of their positions; they have both chambers, the courts, the military, and loyalists at every agency. But public opinion has not cratered yet, and Dems putting the spotlight on themselves while the admin is making things fall apart runs the risk of Dems ending up blamed by median voters for things falling apart.
You have reasonable concerns and I can understand why you see it that way. For me, only one pathway results in procedural power for democrats and that’s the power that I’m prioritizing to buy time for a pro-democracy movement to be able to counter what’s happening on a timeframe that is sooner than later, while the forces of Trumpism have not fully consisted power.
Will democrats stick to their guns? Will they insist on the right things in a future appropriations bill? There’s very good reason to be skeptical including Sen. Schumer’s attempt to have it both ways. But I think it’s the only viable option left.
If your prognostications become reality, this truly is a frightening moment for our country. Dems must recognize that business as usual in the government no longer exists and strategic as well tactical moves are required. The big tent must close ranks to ensure a unified front. Obstruction may work because Repubs could need Dem votes to pass their budget bill. The possibility, however, of Dems being tagged with responsibility for shutting down the government is a very real potential outcome. This would be tragic because as you say it plays into Repub hands.
Is this truly what we have become? I fear we are sleepwalking into the loss of our republic and democracy.
The big question in my mind is whether pro-democracy forces in Congress hold on long enough for the many people who otherwise have not been involved in politics to become involved, and for those involved to lead a pro-democracy movement.
The blame game matters to a significant extent, but the biggest factor will be people who are personally affected by Trump’s decisions.