American Carnage
This morning outgoing President Biden issued pardons to public servants who “have served our nation with honor and distinction and do not deserve to be the targets of unjustified and politically motivated prosecutions.” According to the press statement, recipients of the pardons include: General Mark A. Milley, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, and the members and staff of the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol,” as well as “the U.S. Capitol and D.C. Metropolitan police officers who testified before the Select Committee.”
Why is Biden issuing the pardons? He does not believe the rule of law will hold.
I believe in the rule of law, and I am optimistic that the strength of our legal institutions will ultimately prevail over politics. But these are exceptional circumstances, and I cannot in good conscience do nothing. Baseless and politically motivated investigations wreak havoc on the lives, safety, and financial security of targeted individuals and their families. Even when individuals have done nothing wrong—and in fact have done the right thing—and will ultimately be exonerated, the mere fact of being investigated or prosecuted can irreparably damage reputations and finances.
What exceptional circumstances is he referring to? He doesn’t say it outright in the pardon statement, but his farewell speech he makes clear it is the inauguration of President Trump and his alliance with a new oligarchy.
I want to warn the country of some things that give me great concern. And that’s the dangerous concentration of power in the hands of very few ultra-wealthy people, and the dangerous consequences if their abuse of power is left unchecked.
Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power, and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms, and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead.
He describes a “tech-industrial complex” that is an ascendant “concentration of power and wealth” superceding the old political system.
Americans are being buried under an avalanche of misinformation and disinformation enabling the abuse of power. The free press is crumbling. Editors are disappearing. Social media is giving up on fact-checking. The truth is smothered by lies told for power and for profit.
The Future Has Arrived
Science Fiction writer William Gibson is well known for saying “the future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed yet.” So too with politics. Alas, the Democratic party is dominated by politicians of the old school. (Republicans have been hard at working purging their party.)
Just look at the contretemps over the last week. Jill Biden used an exit interview in the Washington Post on January 15 to take a swipe at Nancy Pelosi for undermining Biden’s campaign after his disastrous debate. Pelosi responds a few days later in Politico by having her daughter aim a stiletto at Biden: “If I was Lady McBiden, I’d put on my big girl pants, play the long game and think about my husband’s legacy.”
How quaint. Meanwhile, POLITICO’s take on Trump:
For years, Trump has peppered his speeches and social media posts with vengeful calls for his political opponents, his critics and members of the media to be prosecuted, locked up, deported and even executed. In the waning weeks of the 2024 campaign, he escalated those promises of retaliation to a fever pitch.
Now that he’s won, he has both a popular mandate — and the power — to begin implementing his platform of punishment….
He won’t be inhibited by the need to run for reelection. He will be emboldened by a Supreme Court ruling that grants presidents broad immunity from criminal accountability after they leave office. And he is expected to be surrounded by aides more willing to dispense with norms to carry out his wishes.
Democrats and Republicans had decades to address the dangers of the imperial presidency. Liza Goitein has written repeatedly on the dangers of the emergency powers provided to the presidency. I’ve raised the alarm about the menace of secret law emanating from the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel. Sean Vitka has spoken out on the peril of an unaccountable surveillance state. Seth Stern has counseled the Congress to pass legislation to protect the free press.
All for nought. Congress—notably politicians of the old school—have empowered the imperial presidency. Its political leaders aggrandized their personal powers at the expense of the Legislative branch, making their control tighter and tighter, squeezing off the oxygen designed for democratic deliberation. They put their hopes in a president who would attain their policy goals. The structural reforms to our democracy were always a bridge too far.
Is it over?
Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House. Most crucially, most Republican elected officials are either in thrall of President Trump or afraid of him. Is this the end? According to academics who study democracy erosion, our salvation now depends on Republicans.
We’ve studied democratic erosion in countries around the world, and our research has found that the most important bulwark against an elected leader undermining democracy doesn’t come from opposition parties or pro-democracy activists. It comes from the ruling party — and particularly the powerful elites in that party — and their efforts to constrain their own leader.
President Biden said he is “optimistic that the strength of our legal institutions will ultimately prevail over politics.” His actions say otherwise. Academics say the institutions will hold “only if the members of the president’s party inside those institutions are willing to use their authority in the face of executive abuses or overreach.”
The first test is the confirmation of Trump’s nominees. “If Republicans fail to stand up to Trump from the very beginning, the slide toward authoritarianism will accelerate, as it did in Hungary and Turkey.” The key thing to remember:
Once a president wrestles power away from the individuals and institutions that brought them to office — in this case, the Republican Party — the process of concentrating power only gains momentum.
This newsletter is laser focused on the exercise of political power. We believe federal policy should be made primarily by the Legislative branch. Our view is that Congress is more than Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Each party contains a multiplicity of factions, and the interests of the factions overlap and diverge to create fluid majorities on issues. Those majorities are thwarted or channeled by the party apparatus — and those political structures can be changed to create different incentives and outcomes. That is happening right now.
In the House, for example, we saw Speaker Johnson remove Mike Turner as chair of the House Intelligence Committee, replaced by Rick Crawford, and remade the committee’s membership. Johnson appointed Virginia Foxx as Chair of the Rules Committee, replaced Thomas Massie with Freedom Caucus member Morgan Griffith, and replaced Guy Reschenthaler with Brian Jack.
These changes solidify Johnson’s control of the Rules Committee and reward the Freedom Caucus faction on Intelligence over the cold warriors. (The latter is a welcome development.)
Meanwhile, we see Republican Rep. Luna pushing a pro-family discharge petition to allow new moms to be able to vote remotely for up to three months after giving birth. Johnson staunchly opposes the bipartisan effort, which now constitutes a nucleus of members who are willing to evolve the rules to meet their needs.
Last Congress a bipartisan array of members forced a Social Security bill out of the House via a discharge petition, which became law. Meanwhile, Johnson repeatedly used the suspension calendar to work around the Rules Committee because he could not trust the Republican members to move his spending bills forward.
These are both threats to Johnson’s personal power. It is a threat to the House Republican party insofar as Johnson embodies and dominates the chamber. In the words of Congressional expert Sarah Binder:
The weaker the majority party, the more likely a faction of the majority will join a cross-party coalition in favor of expanding minority rights. Under such conditions, extending minority rights would seve the policy interests of both minority party members and those majority party members desiring to challenge the majority party’s control of the agenda.
Where a cross-party coalition emerges “depends both on election results and on the set of rules that the parties inherit at the start of a new Congress.” It also depends on whether the majority leadership, in this case Johnson, decides to pick stupid fights. In addition, it also depends on whether the minority leadership, whether Jeffries or someone else, are smart enough to build coalitions with majority members.
In other words, are the powerful elites within the Republican party willing to be both a bulkwark of democracy and to stand up for their own ability to exercise power? Are the Democrats willing to prod them to do so?
The first big test for the Senate is the confirmation of Trump’s appointees. The first big test for the House is whether they’re willing to stand up for their right to appropriate funds as they see fit, or aquiesce to the administration’s stated plans to (illegally) use impoundment.
We are in for a rough ride.
Appropriations
House appropriators will hold an organizing meeting this Thursday. We saw the appointment of Republican and Democratic members of the committee. The majority is also looking for interns — if you know someone, this is one of the best internships you can get.
In prior years, I’ve followed the appropriations process closely and shared my research. This includes tracking who is serving on the subcommittees, discussing the 302(b) allocations, closely covering the scheduling of hearings/markups and when testimony is due, covering what’s happened at select hearings, and so on. This is a tremendous amount of work.
I’m considering doing it again, but devoting that much time is expensive and time consuming. Are folks willing to become paid subscribers to the newsletter (or otherwise donate) to get appropriations content and research? Let me know.
Nominations
Political Scientist Casey Burgat has a thoughtful (and short) blogpost on how a president gets his cabinet confirmed. If you’re interested in that topic, take a look.
Casey also has a new book coming out, “We Hold these ‘Truths’: How to Spot the Myths that are Holding America Back,” on February 4th. It addresses ideas like “bipartisanship is dead,” “the filibuster forces compromise,” and “we vote the issues, not the party.” It contains a series of essays by experts—and no, I’m not one of them. :)
Odds and ends
On its way out the door, the Executive branch issued a flurry of welcome Executive Orders and Memoranda. They address:
The Open Government Data Act — see explaners from the Data Foundation and Alex Howard
Re-establishing the Chief Data Officer’s Council
Guidance on how Generative AI uses its data
Republicans may be looking to go around CBO scores when figuring how much their reconciliation plans will cost. By the way, here’s how CBO supports Congress.
The Senate has formed a bipartisan Congressional Inspector General Caucus.
The Office of the Whistleblower Ombuds will have its first pop-up tabling event of the year on January 22nd from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. in the Longworth Cafeteria.
My friend Taylor Swift has a new job as the Director of Congressional Engagement at the Rebuild Congress Initiative. You know him best from his years of work with me at Demand Progress on congressional issues, including helping to write this very newsletter. Congratulations, Taylor.
Our friends at GovTrack are watching when legislators repeatedly miss roll call votes, perhaps inspired by the fact that Kay Granger didn’t vote on the House floor for six months and no one noticed. Josh tells me the criteria for inclusion:
50% or more missed votes in a time period leading up to the most recent vote in the chamber
The time period is more than 10 days.
There were at least 3 legislative days (unique dates on which votes occurred) in the time period.
I am sad to share the passing of Elise Bean. She was an investigator for Sen. Carl Levin and more recently helped to establish the Levin Center, training hundreds of staff on conducting oversight. She was a delight to know and an honored member of our community.